Oman's Non-Oil Sectors Now Contribute 73.3% of GDP
Oman's economic diversification efforts are bearing substantial fruit as the latest data reveals non-oil sectors now represent 73.3% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product, marking a significant milestone in the Sultanate's journey toward a post-oil economy. The figures, released for the third quarter of 2025, show continued momentum in the government's Vision 2040 objectives.
GDP Composition and Growth
The contribution of non-oil sectors to GDP has risen to 73.3% by the end of Q3 2025, up from 72.5% in 2024, demonstrating steady progress in economic rebalancing. The value added by non-oil activities reached approximately RO21 billion, compared to RO20.4 billion in Q3 2024, representing substantial absolute growth alongside the increased share.
Real growth in non-oil activities stood at 3.4% at the end of the third quarter of 2025, although this represents a slight moderation from the 4.2% growth recorded in 2024. This cooling reflects global economic headwinds while still maintaining positive expansion.
Overall, Oman's GDP edged up 1.5% year-on-year to $80.5 billion in the first nine months of 2025, pushed primarily by non-oil trades and activities.
Sectoral Performance
The diversification gains are spread across multiple sectors. Mining activities surged by 12%, reflecting increased extraction of non-hydrocarbon minerals and expansion of the mining sector. Logistics grew by 4.5%, benefiting from Oman's strategic position as a trade hub and ongoing investments in port and transportation infrastructure. Agriculture and fisheries revenues increased by 7%, supported by food security initiatives and aquaculture development.
Oil Sector Trajectory
The oil sector's relative decline in GDP contribution has been a deliberate outcome of diversification policy. The sector's growth trajectory has shifted from 8.6% in 2022 to just 0.1% in 2023, followed by a contraction of 2.7% in 2024, and a modest recovery to 0.3% growth in Q3 2025. While oil revenues remain important, they are becoming a smaller share of the overall economic picture.
Non-Oil Revenue Growth
Government non-oil revenues have grown substantially, from RO2.7 billion in 2020 to RO3.507 billion in 2024. The 2025 budget estimates non-oil revenues at RO3.573 billion, reflecting a 1.5% increase. Key components include value-added and excise taxes (RO680 million), corporate income tax (RO656 million), dividends from the Oman Investment Authority (RO800 million), and government fees (RO1.4 billion).
Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign direct investment continues to flow into Oman, with FDI stock growing 18% in 2024. Cumulative FDI in the first half of 2025 exceeded RO30.3 billion, representing a 12.8% year-over-year increase. This investment is concentrated in manufacturing, logistics, renewable energy, and services sectors.
Growth Projections
Looking ahead, the average GDP growth over the first four years of the 10th Five-Year Plan has been 3.4%, slightly below the target of 3.5%. Forecasts for 2025 from the Ministry of Economy, IMF, and World Bank range between 2.2% and 3.0%, reflecting cautious optimism amid global uncertainties.
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